Went to see veteran pollster Bob Worcester lecture at the University of Manchester last week. He was an impressive presenter. You can read his analysis of the numbers here. But, as he warned, events can change everything.
But he also expanded on a further theory that has been pretty robust over the years:
Allow me to present a prediction model for determining the outcomes of British general elections, which over the period since 1950 has a record to match Bob Mackenzie’s swingometer. (See Table.) All you have to do to predict which of the major parties will have an overall majority in the Commons following the election is to note the shirt colours usually worn by the current holders (on election day) of the FA Cup.
It points to a Conservative win. As Chelsea are the current cup holders. Read the whole thing, here.